GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency and began a new fall. At the moment, the pair's quotes have already closed under the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3830) on the senior Fibo grid. Thus, the fall can be continued toward the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3776). However, bear traders have started to put pressure on the pair several times over the past few weeks. However, each time, the bulls kept it from falling heavily. Thus, I do not expect a strong drop in quotes, although it is possible today. Traders did not pay any attention to the British statistics. Although it could have supported the pound, as the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in June, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 7.8 thousand, and wages increased by 8.8%.
According to all reports, traders expected weaker values. But, as we can see, the pound did not receive any support. Thus, attention should be focused on the American reports and the speech of Jerome Powell. The fact that the dollar is still trying to grow by all means indicates traders' confidence in the early curtailment of the QE program, which the Fed continues to pursue. And it is the speech of Jerome Powell that can both add faith to traders in this issue and dispel it completely. Jerome Powell has not recently commented on quantitative easing and has repeatedly stated that the US economy is not ready for such a step. But several members of the Fed's board have already spoken out in favor of discussing the completion of this program in the coming months. Many analysts believe that in September, the Fed may announce specific deadlines for completing QE. That is why Powell's speech is so important for traders and the US dollar.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart returned to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870), a rebound from it, a reversal, and began a new fall towards the level of 1.3790. In the case of favorable statistics for the dollar, the decline in quotes may continue today in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3730) on the small Fibo grid. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the volume of industrial production (13:15 UTC).
US - Jerome Powell will give a speech (17:30 UTC).
On Tuesday, all the planned reports in the UK have already been released, and two more important reports will be released in the US in the afternoon. However, Jerome Powell's speech in the evening will be of the greatest importance, although it will not affect the movement of the pound/dollar pair during the day in any way.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from August 10 on the British dollar showed that the mood of major players has changed to "bullish" and is now strengthening, as speculators closed 1,872 long contracts and 5,480 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts on their hands exceeds the number of short contracts, and the gap between the categories increases. Such a change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders may mean that major players are not ready for further sales of the British dollar. The British currency has already begun to be in demand again among speculators. However, the bulls still do not have a strong advantage since the "Non-commercial" group has only 6,000 more long contracts than short.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound from 1.3776 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3830 and 1.3884. Or in the case of closing above the level of 1.3830 with a target of 1.3884. Sales of the pound were recommended with targets of 1.3830 and 1.3776 if a rebound from the level of 1.3870 is performed on the 4-hour chart. Now they can be kept open.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
