The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument is currently quite clear, but, unfortunately, it begins to get confusing. A couple of weeks ago, everything looked quite convincing: an impulse wave a was built, after which the construction of a corrective wave began, presumably b as part of the upward trend section. However, at the moment, the construction of wave b has not yet been completed, and the wave itself has taken a very long form, which casts doubt on the resumption of the increase in the quotes of the instrument in the near future. And it certainly casts doubt on the assumption that the new upward section of the trend is impulsive, as I assumed again a couple of weeks ago. Now the wave counting looks like another correction section of the trend, which can take a three-wave form. If you look at all the wave structures over the past six months, their distinctive feature is quite deep corrective waves. In addition, all these structures are corrective, so it is very difficult to expect the instrument to go beyond the range of 1.3600 – 1.4240. However, I am still waiting for the completion of the decline in quotes and the construction of a new upward wave, presumably c.
The Pound/Dollar instrument fell by 110 basis points on Tuesday, and the movement began at night. That is, even before the opening of the stock exchange in London, the pound has already begun to decline. Not even waiting for the British economic reports. This is a rather strange behavior of the market. If the decline in quotes in the Euro/Dollar instrument began only in the afternoon, with the opening of the stock exchange in New York, which is at least a little logical, then it is very difficult to understand why demand began to fall for the pound at night. Moreover, the current wave counting has long assumed the completion of the decline in quotes and the resumption of growth. Moreover, reports on unemployment, wages, and applications for unemployment benefits were released early in the morning in the UK. And all three of these reports were better than the expectations of the markets. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits was -7,800. And wages increased by 8.8%. That is, these data should have caused at least not a strong, but an increase in the quotes of the pound. Instead, the pound sterling fell down today, like a twelve-pound ball thrown from a cliff. Very strange behavior of the market. Today, in a couple of hours, there will be another speech by Fed President Jerome Powell, but it is unknown whether the markets will even want to wait for him after such an active day.
The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward wave, so at this time I propose to consider buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4240 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. The instrument is still at the stage of constructing a corrective wave 2 or b and its construction is clearly delayed, which may negatively affect the integrity of the current wave count.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has already acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the information background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should resume in the near future.
