Overview:
USD/CHF is trading with bearish bias. The rate is undermined by negative USD sentiment; CHF demand on buoyant CHF/JPY as weak yen sentiment supports the cross; CHF demand on falling AUD/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses. USD/CHF gains tempered by lower U.S. Treasury yields, weaker risk appetite (S&P fell 0.43% Friday) and negative USD sentiment after disappointing March U.S. jobs report (non-farm payrolls only rose 88,000 vs. +200,000 forecast) which pushes back expectations for when Fed's quantitative easing will be reduced. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit at 0.9379 on Friday; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and falling.
Recommendation:
Sell below 0.939 with downside targets at 0.931 and 0.928.
Support levels:
S1 - 0.9310 (Friday's low)
S2 - 0.9280 (Feb. 28 low)
S3 - 0.9230 (Feb. 25 low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.939 with upside targets at 0.9433 and 0.9465.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 0.9433 (Friday's high)
R2 - 0.9465
R3 - 0.9567 (six-month high when hit March 14).
