As it was repeatedly noted in yesterday's articles, at the auction on August 16-20, the US dollar was a clear favorite on the Forex currency market. It is characteristic that the Australian dollar suffered the most from the strengthening of the US currency. There is a difference in the monetary policy of the Central Banks of the two countries. If the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) plans to start reducing bond purchases by the end of this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has done the "Aussie" a disservice due to the clearly expressed dovish rhetoric. Since this review is devoted to the technical component, let's analyze the price charts from the weekly timeframe.
Weekly
As can be seen on the weekly timeframe, after the consolidation of the exchange rate, these are the three previous highlighted candles of the Doji variety – a sharp directional movement should have occurred. And it happened. The AUD/USD exchange rate fell sharply, ending the last five trading days at the level of 0.7139. At the same time, it is worth noting that the trades opened at the level of 0.7371. The decline is serious. The pair went well below the black 89 and orange 200 exponential moving averages. However, at the moment, the "Australian" is very actively being adjusted. If the upward movement continues with the same pressure of buyers, a pullback to the broken 89 and 200 exponents, which are located near 0.7334, and a little higher, at 0.7355, the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator passes. Usually, I very rarely offer trading ideas on a weekly schedule. The timeframe is very large, and it is almost impossible to enter the market accurately using it. However, in this case, when the pair reaches the price area of 0.7330-0.7350 and bearish candle signals appear on lower timeframes, there will be a basis for opening sales.
Daily
However, regarding sales, judging by the daily schedule, not everything is so clear. We are talking about the reversal figure of the candle analysis "Morning Star," which consists of the last three candles circled on the chart. Now, in my opinion, the moment of truth is coming for the AUD/USD pair. The fact is that the quote came close to the red Tenkan line (0.7246), and above, at 0.7270, the blue Kijun line also passes. If the pair can return above these lines, the chances of a further rise will undoubtedly increase. The conclusions about the reversal can be made after returning above the broken support level of 0.7292. If this happens, the breakdown of this mark will be considered false. And yet, at the moment, the reversal model of the Morning Star candle analysis has not been confirmed by the subsequent growth. Thus, sales continue to be the main trading idea for the Australian dollar. Aggressively and riskily, you can try to sell from the current values. It is less risky to sell from the price zone of 0.7270-0.7300. Well, I recommend looking for the most attractive prices for opening short positions if the pair rises to the price range of 0.7330-0.7350. Purchases at the moment seem riskier, so I recommend that you refrain from them for now. If the reversal pattern on the daily chart finds its confirmation, we will consider opening long positions.
