EUR/USD
The development of a new wave of coronavirus in the United States (on August 20, a record was set for daily infections of 319,000 against 300,000 at the beginning of January, with 52.8% of the population fully vaccinated) seriously shifted the expectations of market participants regarding the start of phasing out incentives. Now the reduction in the buyback of the Federal Reserve's assets is expected no earlier than from the first quarter of next year. This is what investors are now looking forward to hearing from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday.
But we think that the weakening of the dollar in recent days is associated with other reasons. The main one is the infusion of dollars into the world financial system, their exit from the internal circuit to the external one. One of these channels is the International Monetary Fund's issuance of loans to a number of countries to fight the coronavirus, worth $1 trillion. dollars. Russia received $17.5 billion. This is probably one of the ways to strengthen the dollar's involvement in the global payment system.
Over the day, the situation has not changed on the daily chart. The price is still consolidating below the balance indicator line, only the Marlin oscillator is showing its readiness to return below its zero line. The technical probability of the price movement to 1.1640 by analogy with the August 13-16 pattern marked on the chart with a gray oval is about 30%. Growth to 1.1847 accounts for 40%, the remaining 30% for various options for wider range trading. For example, a decline to 1.1705 and then a rise.
The price is staying above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the zone of positive values, the upward trend continues, and for this reason, the decline to 1.1640 by the current moment accounts for no more than 30%.
So, after the completion of the consolidation, we expect further growth to the nearest target of 1.1847 and further to 1.1920.
