Analysis of Thursday trades:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
Trading activity on EUR/USD was very sluggish on Thursday. Compared to the two previous sessions, nothing new happed this time. The pair was trading flat for the whole day in a sideways channel of 33 pips. Formally, an upward trend, which has been going on for six days, still continues. Most of the time, the price has hardly moved. Today, the pair formed an ascending trendline. However, this level is so weak that the price can drop below it even tonight. During the day, the report on GDP for the second quarter of 2021 was published in the US, and it almost did not affect the pair's trajectory. The pair probably dropped by 15-20 pips after its publication. Thus, at the moment the quotes are holding near the trendline. If this line is crossed, a new downward movement may begin. A lot of trading signals have been generated during the day. One of them was a buy signal generated by the MACD indicator. However, as you might guess, the upward movement did not continue and we had to exit long positions manually later in the day.
EUR/USD on 5M chart
On the 5-minute time frame, the pair's movement was extremely boring on Thursday. Over the past few days, the pair had moved by at least 40-50 pips. Today, however, it passed the distance of only 33 pips. Moreover, the entire movement took place inside the sideways channel where the levels of f 1.1765 and 1.1756 were located. Since they were located very close to each other, they should be considered together. That is, consolidation below the level of 1.1765 should have been confirmed by a breakout of 1.1756. However, even in this case, many false signals were generated. The good news is that by the middle of the European session it became clear that the pair was fully stuck in a flat channel and all subsequent signals should be ignored. Therefore, beginners could only open one buy trade near the 1.1765 level. Just like on the 30-minute time frame, the upward movement did not continue here, so this trade resulted in a loss of about 13 pips. A buy signal on the 30-minute time frame was formed at about the same time, so the same deal should not be repeated. As a result, only one long position could be opened.
Trading tips on Friday:
On the 30-minute time frame, the EUR/USD pair keeps holding above the descending trend line. So if the price does not drop below this level overnight, you can consider following buy signals. However, you should pay attention to very low volatility which makes the MACD indicator generate false or very weak signals. Therefore, we recommend considering buy signals from the MACD indicator on Friday, but please do it with the utmost care. It is better to trade on the lowest time frame now. On a 5-minute time frame, it is better to trade from the levels of 1.1704, 1.1730, 1.1756, 1.1779, and 1.1802. Take Profit should set at a distance of 30-40 pips. Stop Loss should be placed to a breakeven point as soon as the price moves by 15 pips in the right direction. On the 5M time frame, the nearest level can serve as a target unless it is located too close or too far away. If so, you should act according to the situation. On Friday, Fed's Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at the economic conference. Markets have been waiting for this event from the very beginning of the week. Therefore, tomorrow, the volatility level may finally increase.
On the chart
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
