GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency during Thursday and a fairly strong fall to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3692) on the small Fibo grid. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and a resumption of growth in the direction of 38.2% (1.3747) and 50.0% (1.3792) on a small grid. Closing the pair's rate at 1.3692 will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3602). However, in the last few days, traders have shown only one thing: they are confused and do not know what to do with the dollar and the pound. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the pair's quotes were between the levels of 1.3692 and 1.3747. Yesterday, they fell by 80 points. Moreover, the fall lasted all day, so it can not be tied to reports from the United States.
And there have been no reports from the UK since Monday. In general, the situation is very confusing and incomprehensible. We can only hope that Jerome Powell will put all the dots over the "I" today and allow traders to draw at least some definite conclusions. It would greatly help traders of both currency pairs. Also, today, several other reports will be released in America, which may affect the mood of traders a little. However, there is very little hope for this. The most important thing that is missing now is an important information background from Britain. Recently, no news has been coming from there at all. Because the coronavirus has not gone anywhere in Britain, it continues to spread, as in the United States, causing economists worldwide to be afraid.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US currency and closed under the Fibo level of 23.6%. As a result, the growth process can now be continued toward the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). However, I now recommend paying more attention to the junior schedule. And today, everything will depend on the performance of Jerome Powell and not on the graphic picture. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - main index of personal consumption expenditures (12:30 UTC).
US - changes in the level of expenditures and incomes of the population (12:30 UTC).
US - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Jerome Powell, will give a speech (14:00 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On Friday in the UK, the calendar of economic events does not contain a single interesting entry. Four reports will be released in America, none of which gives the impression of provoking a reaction from traders. Thus, the information background will be strong today, but only if Powell voices important information.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report dated August 17 for the British dollar showed that the mood of major players is again "bullish" but again weakened, as speculators closed 2,718 long and 312 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators exceeds the total number of short contracts. However, this advantage is very weak. Instead, we can conclude that the number of long and short contracts is almost the same. The same can be said for other categories of traders since the total number of long and short contracts is almost the same.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the level of 1.3692, with targets of 1.3747 and 1.3792. I recommend selling the pound with a target of 1.3602 if a close is made under the level of 1.3692 on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
