GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the level of 23.6% (1.3731) on the senior Fibo grid during Monday, rebounding from it and turning in favor of the British. And today, the growth process has resumed. The first level that got in the way of bull traders is 1.3792. Closing quotes above it will favor continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3830) on the senior grid. A rebound from any level of correction will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some fall in the direction of the ascending trend line, which continues to characterize the mood of traders as "bullish." There was no information background in the UK yesterday. And the only US economic report did not have any impact on the mood of traders. Today, the situation will not improve because the UK calendar still does not contain a single important entry.
However, bull traders showed that they are ready to buy the British quite actively from the very morning. And given the fact that the pound and the euro are growing synchronously this morning, it is most likely that the American is selling. And there are now good reasons for this. Let me remind you that on Friday, Jerome Powell frankly disappointed traders without naming either the timing of the curtailment of the asset purchase program or the conditions under which the Fed will be ready to start tightening monetary policy. He only said that this year the Fed might begin to cancel the stimulus. However, it is not known when this will happen. Thus, in Powell's speech, traders could "read" that the Fed is not yet ready to complete QE. And this is partly a bearish factor for the dollar. Thus, in the coming weeks, the US currency may continue the process of falling, even without paying attention to economic reports.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a new reversal in favor of the British and closed above the Fibo level of 23.6%. Thus, the growth process can be continued toward the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). However, I now recommend paying more attention to the junior chart, where there is a trend line. Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed will not rush to any decisions on tightening the stimulus package, so the US dollar is not in demand right now. The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3870 may stop the growth of the pair.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - Chicago PMI index (13:45 UTC).
US - indicator of consumer confidence (14:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendar of economic events in the UK does not contain a single important entry. Two reports will be published in America, far from the most important. However, all the most interesting reports will still be published this week. Today, the information background will be extremely weak.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from August 24 on the British showed that the mood of major players had become sharply more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 2,266 long contracts and immediately opened 18,903 short contracts. Thus, now the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is less than the total number of short contracts. In one week, the mood of speculators has changed dramatically. However, can we conclude that the Briton will now continue to fall? As I have already said, traders have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at the moment, the British dollar's quotes continue to grow. The further fall of the British is not guaranteed.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Yesterday, I recommended buying the pair if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the levels of 1.3747 or 1.3731, with targets of 1.3792 and 1.3830. The first goal has been achieved, and I recommend staying in purchases. I recommend selling the pound with targets of 1.3747 and 1.3731 if a rebound from the level of 1.3792 is performed on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
