The wave counting for the euro/dollar instrument on the 4-hour chart remains unchanged. The instrument still passes no more than 50 points per day and moves, while in the last two non-wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument remains unchanged. The instrument still passes no more than 50 points per day and in the last two weeks, it moves only in one direction - up. Over the past eleven days, the instrument has gained about 230 basis points, which gives strong grounds to assume the completion of the construction of the downward trend. Its internal wave counting looks quite convincing, which also allows for its completion. So, in my opinion, at this time, the construction of a new upward trend section of the trend has begun and continues, which can also turn out to be corrective, that is, three-wave. If this assumption is correct, then the first wave can turn out to be quite extended, and the final target of the entire structure will lie near the high of the previous uptrend section, that is, near the level of 1.2266. I do not consider the variant with the complication of the descending set of waves. Deal only in one direction - up. Over the past eleven days, the instrument has gained about 230 basis points, which gives strong grounds to assume the completion of the construction of the downward trend. Its internal wave counting looks quite convincing, which also allows for its completion. So, in my opinion, at this time, the construction of a new upward trend section of the trend has begun and continues, which can also turn out to be corrective, that is, three-wave. If this assumption is correct, then the first wave can turn out to be quite extended, and the final target of the entire structure will lie near the high of the previous uptrend section, that is, near the level of 1.2266. I am not considering the variant with the complication of the descending wave set.
There was no news background for the euro/dollar instrument on Monday. Nothing interesting either in the United States or in the eurozone. The markets have absorbed this and broadcast it to the foreign exchange market. As a result, the euro/dollar instrument produced a magnitude of 15 basis points. However, such low activity from the markets has not been surprising for a long time. The tool has taught us in recent months that you can expect serious movement once a week, not more often. All other days, regardless of the news background, pass at a range of 15-20 basis points. This level of activity of the markets does not affect the wave picture in any way, however, the potential amounts of profit on transactions become much smaller. The dollar quickly digested the negative Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was released on Friday, and on Monday it was already growing in value. However, as I said, all price changes are really minimal. This week the European Union will host a meeting of the European Central Bank, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. These are the most important events of this week, so now the markets will be waiting for them. That is, it will be possible to expect an increase in market activity not earlier than Thursday. Nothing interesting in America this week. There are no preconditions for the beginning of the formation of a correctional wave b at this time. Everything is as quiet, calm and boring as possible.
Based on the analysis carried out, I conclude that the construction of the descending section could have been completed around 1.1704, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci. Therefore, now I am still waiting for the formation of an upward set of waves. There are no signs of the resumption and complication of the construction of the downward trend at the moment, so I still recommend buying the instrument with targets located near 1.1965 and 1.2027, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci for each signal MACD is up. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1895 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, indicates that the markets are ready for small short positions, building wave b. Therefore, I recommend renewing long positions above this mark.
Major scale wave counting looks quite convincing. We see three three wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last part of the trend quite unexpectedly took on a more complex form, but at the same time it ended in the same place as the previous three-wave part.
