Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) was trading above the 21 SMA located at 1,793 and above the 200 EMA located at 1,763. We can see that gold is trading within an uptrend channel formed on July 26.
Last week, XAU/USD consolidated in the range of 1,781-1,807. On the other hand, lower US inflation data pushed US bond yields lower. Despite this gold failed to break the resistance zone of 1,812. (6/8 Murray).
If XAU/USD breaks above 6/8 Murray at 1,812, traders could expect gold to hit the resistance zone at 1,843 (7/8). Otherwise, if the price of gold continues below the psychological level of $1,800, the price may move to the 200 EMA at 1,773 and even fall to 4/8 Murray and 1,750.
Recent comments from several Fed officials indicate that the US central bank will continue to tighten its monetary policy. An interest rate hike of 50 basis points is expected in September. This data could limit the rise of gold and could exert downward pressure on the price to push towards support levels of 1,718.
Since the August 1, gold has been giving a negative divergence signal. If XAU/USD fails to break the strong resistance of 6/8 Murray located at 1812, a correction towards 4/8 Murray at 1,750 is likley to occur.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy if there is a technical bounce around the uptrend channel or above the 21 SMA located at 1,793, targeting 1,800 and 1,812.
Conversely, a sharp break below the trend channel formed on the 4-hour chart and a close below 1,785 could be a clear signal to sell with targets at 1,773 and 1,750.
