Yesterday, gold completely erased its Friday profit of 1.2%, slipped below the key mark of $ 1,800, and showed the strongest drop in almost a month. What is the reason?
At the end of last week, the yellow "climber" finally conquered another psychologically important peak. Thanks to weak statistics from the US labor market and the fall of the dollar to a 2-month low, the price of bullion soared above $ 1,830. However, the asset did not stay at its peak for long.
After the return of American and Canadian traders from the long weekend on Labor Day, the situation on Tuesday in the market changed dramatically. The green currency began to recover after Friday's steep peak.
During yesterday's trading, the greenback index managed to strengthen by 0.5% against its main competitors. The indicator reached 92.48 points.
At the same time, the yield of 10-year US bonds also increased. At the end of last week, the indicator stopped at 1.322%, while on Tuesday, it jumped to 1.369%.
Against this background, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreased, which affected its price. Yesterday, the quotes showed the strongest drop in about a month and reached the lowest value in almost two weeks.
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange COMEX, the precious metal was trading at $ 1,798.50. Compared to last Friday, it lost $ 35.20 or 1.9% of the value.
After yesterday's sharp fall, gold is trying to move up this morning as part of a correction. So, at the time of preparation of the material, bullion showed a symbolic increase, having risen in price by only 0.02% or 45 cents.
Meanwhile, analysts emphasize that at this stage, gold does not have a powerful positive trigger. Of course, the value of the yellow asset is still supported by coronavirus risks, but this is not enough to ensure stable positive dynamics.
The dollar remains the key price-forming factor for gold. Its course will set the mood on the precious metals market in the near future. If the "American" falls – the price of gold will jump, and vice versa.
In turn, the further route of the green currency depends on the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve. There is still uncertainty about the future policy of the regulator. It is due to the uneven recovery of the American economy after the coronavirus pandemic.
Investors hope that today's publication of the "Beige Book" of the US Federal Reserve will shed light on the current economic situation in the country. If the financial report indicates a slowdown in the pace of recovery, the dollar will weaken again, and gold will go up.
As for the more distant forecasts, they are still negative for the yellow metal. Analysts of the international rating agency Fitch Solutions believe that bullion will be traded mainly sideways in the coming months, and the price will fall to $ 1,780 by the end of the year.
According to experts, the decline in quotes will be triggered by several factors. Among the main ones are the weakening of inflationary pressure, a reduction in the pace of asset purchases, the normalization of the monetary rate of the US Federal Reserve, as well as an increase in US bond yields.
If all these scenarios are implemented, the price of the noble asset risks falling to $ 1,700 at the beginning of next year, Fitch Solutions experts note.
