Following the summer, autumn trading on the main currency pair retained the same uncertainty characteristic of EUR/USD recently. Following the growth observed at the end of August, September trading began with a reversal of the exchange rate in the south direction.
If we touch on the most important events that the euro/dollar currency pair will experience this week, then today will be the most important of them. Let me remind you that at 12:45 London time, the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates will be announced. At 13:30 (London time), a press conference will be held by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Few people doubt that the main interest rate will remain at zero. But market participants can get more information about emergency support for the economy of the European region in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic. As for the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the main factor is still the start date of reducing the quantitative easing program or the so-called QE program.
As you know, there is a high probability that the Fed will begin reducing the bond purchase program at the end of this year. At least, several Fed officials advocate this, particularly the president of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of St. Louis, James Bullard. He believes that the Federal Reserve should begin tightening monetary policy in the very near future. However, today, investors will focus on the ECB and the press conference of the head of this department. In addition, at 13:30 (London time), data on initial applications for unemployment benefits will be received from the United States. Now we can proceed to the description of the technical picture for the euro/dollar. First, we will analyze the daily timeframe.
As can be seen on the daily price chart, after the growth that began on August 20 (from 1.1664), the pair rose slightly above the important and strong mark of 1.1900, where it met the quite expected resistance of sellers, which was strengthened by the black 89 exponential moving average and the orange 200 exponentials. In addition, it is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair could not stay within the Ichimoku indicator cloud and fell out of it down. This factor indicates that the players' strength to increase the exchange rate was exhausted, and they gave the reins of the instrument to their opponents, who willingly took advantage of it. At the moment, the euro/dollar is trading slightly above another landmark level of 1.1800. At the same time, we should not ignore that yesterday's session ended below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator, and the purple 50 simple moving average provides the current support.
Given that the blue Kijun line passes a little lower, we will designate the support zone of 1.1802-1.1787. The nearest resistance is in the area of 1.1831-1.1846, where the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud and the red Kijun line is located. Turning to the trading recommendations, I note that the main impact on today's trading will be exerted by events related to the ECB. In this context, both purchases and sales of the instrument can be considered from the indicated daily resistances and support. Naturally, we consider buying their support zones and the opportunity to sell from the resistance area. At the same time, it is necessary to first receive confirmation signals for opening positions in each of the directions at smaller time intervals. It is also necessary to consider the possible high volatility today, especially during the speech of Christine Lagarde.
