Bitcoin behaves in a very strange way relative to the support level of the side channel 46,299.48 - 50,513.53. The daily candle closed slightly below it on Wednesday. And on Thursday, it is still forming something like a doji with a body below the level. It is too early and wrong to draw conclusions on an unclosed candle. But there is uncertainty.
Locally, the direction of BTC/USD is unclear, but the medium-term bullish trend is clearly not lost. The only question is whether the correction will last and how deep. The answer to the question about the continuation of the decline will remain unanswered until we see the price determination relative to the level of 46,299.48. But if it is confirmed as resistance, we can expect a movement downward.
The following levels remain the targets for the fall of BTC/USD. First, you should think about the red dotted support at 44,807.24, below which the price did not fall, moving into a wide range of 41,980.24 - 64,883.36. But if this level is broken, the price will drop even lower to the strong mirror level of 41,980.24, which, in my opinion, separates the (conditionally) bullish and bearish ranges for bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Glassnode data show that a 15% drop in Bitcoin on Tuesday led to an increase in unrealized losses among holders of the main cryptocurrency. Such conclusions are made based on the Percent Supply in Profit Indicator, which allows traders to use that part of the coins existing on the market that are profitable. The price of a coin is determined by the time it was last moved.
Indicators such as the percent supply in profit help determine the current mood in the market, showing the gains and losses of currency holders.
At the moment, more than 10% of bitcoins owned by traders and investors have entered the "unrealized losses" zone. This means that if the holders were selling their coins at this very moment, they would face losses since their average market entry was in the range between $52,000 and $45,800.
During the previous market correction in July, when bitcoin plummeted to $29,000, more than 20% of the total supply turned into significant losses. The offer is still mostly profitable, with about 90% of holders making money in current market conditions. The bitcoin market will only become unprofitable if its price falls below $10,000.
The largest volume of active market entry occurred in 2021 when institutional investors began to buy bitcoin. In January 2021, almost $20 billion worth of bitcoins were purchased for several weeks in a row.
