GBP/USD 5M
The pound/dollar pair continued to move in a rather active channel on September 10. Although this is only at first glance, since in fact the price passed only 66 points from the high to the low of the day. Thus, this volatility for the pair can be called low. Still, there were movements during the day, and they were very good for working out. However, we will start with the macroeconomic reports that were published in the UK on Friday morning and... provoked the growth of the British currency with a delay of 40 minutes, despite the fact that it should not have done so. The July GDP report turned out to be much weaker than forecasts. The British economy grew in that month by 0.1% m/m against the forecast of + 0.5% m/m. But the report on industrial production in July turned out to be much better than expected: + 1.2% m/m against the forecast of + 0.3% m/m. Thus, purely hypothetically, the report on industrial production could overlap the report on GDP, but why then the growth of the British currency did not begin immediately, but after 40 minutes? One way or another, but in the first half of the day, not a single trading signal was generated. The only trading signal of the day was formed at the very beginning of the US trading session, when the price just perfectly reached the level of 1.3886 and bounced off it. Naturally, such a good signal had to be processed with a short position. Subsequently, the price dropped almost to the critical line, but the short position should have been closed earlier. The profit on the deal was about 40 points.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair left the descending channel on the hourly timeframe, but was unable to continue the downward movement, but instead returned to the 1.3886 level, rebounded from it and formed a kind of "double top" pattern. Since the price has almost dropped to the Kijun-sen line, overcoming this line and Senkou Span B will allow us to expect further movement to the downside. And in case of a rebound from any of these lines, the upward movement will resume, and the level of 1.3886 will still be overcome. We also continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels: 1.3677, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794, 1.3886, 1.3948. Senkou Span B (1.3784) and Kijun-sen (1.3806) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. There will be no major events or reports in the UK and the United States on Monday, September 13. The volatility in GBP/USD in recent weeks is also low, so you can count on 60-70 points of the covered distance.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair gained 80 points during the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6). The most important group of non-commercial traders continues to decrease their net position, and their mood is becoming increasingly bearish. These changes are clearly visible on the indicators in the chart above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (the net position of the "non-commercial" group) has already gone below the zero level and continues to decline. Simply put, the mood of the major players has already changed to bearish and is now only getting stronger. However, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend is over due to the too weak correction against this trend (recall: only 23.6%). It is the weakness of the correction over the past six months that does not allow us to conclude that a new downward trend has begun to form, and not just a correction. Thus, the major players continue to sell off the pound, while the currency itself, after three attempts, could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666. Therefore, we believe that in the first place in terms of importance is the factor of infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy by the Federal Reserve, which ensures the depreciation of the dollar in the long run and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. During the reporting week, non-commercial traders closed 5.5 thousand buy contracts (longs) and opened 2.5 thousand sell contracts (shorts). But despite the fact that the major players are bearish, this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
