GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday performed an increase to the corrective levels of 1.3830 and 1.3837, near which it continues to be for a week. I can say that nothing interesting is happening for the pound/dollar pair now. Traders seem to react to economic reports from Britain and the United States, which are released almost every day. However, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade between the levels of 1.3792 and 1.3909. Thus, the information background is present but does not affect the course of the pound too much. In the UK, at this time, entrepreneurs demanded that the country's Finance Minister Rishi Sunak review the tax plan for the next financial year. Earlier, Sunak presented a budget plan, according to which some tax rates will be increased. And if this plan is adopted, then taxes in the UK will be the highest in its entire history.
British business believes that in such difficult times, after the pandemic and Brexit, businesses and citizens, on the contrary, need support from the state and the central bank. The president of the Confederation of British Industry, Tony Danker, said that the government did not detail important economic decisions. He also noted that some companies take a responsible approach to reducing carbon emissions into the atmosphere and deserve preferences from the state, rather than raising taxes. Earlier, the Confederation also criticized the government's decision to increase social contributions, which could increase unemployment. However, the "hole" in the budget formed after Brexit and the pandemic needs to be "patched," and the British government is going to "patch" it with the help of tax increases. Now the "labor force paradox" has formed in the UK. The shortage of workers remains, the number of open vacancies is growing, but the British are in no hurry to work.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3791) on the small Fibo grid, rebounded from it, and began the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). The rebound of quotes from this level will favor the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the level of 1.3791. No indicator has any emerging divergences today, and the pound continues to trade not too actively, which is visible on the hourly chart.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK does not contain a single interesting entry, and two reports will be released in the US that may interest traders. The British dollar is still moving more actively than the euro, so there is all hope for it.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on September 7 for the British showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 5,437 long contracts and opened 2,427 short contracts. The total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost twice less than the total number of Short contracts. Therefore, in general, the mood of speculators is now "bearish." However, traders still have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at this time, there are still excellent opportunities for the growth of the British dollar quotes. Thus, the further fall of the British is not guaranteed. We need graphical sell signals so that they coincide with the data of COT reports.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Yesterday, I recommended buying the pair when it rebounds from the level of 1.3792 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3830 and 1.3892. Now, these transactions can be kept open with the second goal. I recommend selling the pound today when closing quotes under the level of 1.3830 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3792 and 1.3747.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
