GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell below the level of 50.0% (1.3792) on Thursday and managed to perform a reversal in favor of the British and start the growth process. The targets are 1.3830 and 1.3892. However, in general, the graphic picture is becoming more and more similar to a side corridor. The pair stubbornly do not want to leave the range between the levels of 1.3731 and 1.3909, which it has been in for three weeks. Thus, any movement within this range can be "just a movement" that does not mean anything. Yesterday, there was no economic report in the UK, and after the release of the report on retail trade in the US, the US currency showed good growth. However, in the longer term, this growth does not mean anything. Traders are still waiting for the Fed meeting and its results. And while they are waiting, the UK and the European Union are again starting to conflict with each other over the provisions of the Brexit agreement.
David Frost, the Brexit minister, said that London wants to revise the protocol on Northern Ireland completely and is even ready to start unilateral refusal to fulfill some points of the general agreement with the European Union. Frost refers to article number 16 of the Brexit agreement, which allows the parties to unilaterally refuse to fulfill certain conditions of the deal in the event of a "difficult situation." It is not known what exactly can be interpreted as a "difficult situation." However, in Britain, they believe that the discontent of unionists in Northern Ireland can be considered as such. In turn, the European Commission warned the British that any revision of the protocol on Northern Ireland or a unilateral refusal to fulfill the terms of the agreement would only worsen the situation and worsen relations between the EU and Britain. This situation does not affect the course of the pound yet, but it is still impossible to ignore this topic.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3791) once again. Recently, the British dollar has been moving, ignoring all corrective levels, not contributing to profitable trading. There are no clear signals at this time. There are no emerging divergences observed in any indicator.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK- change in the volume of retail trade, taking into account fuel costs (06:00 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On Friday in the UK, the calendar of economic events contains one interesting entry – a report on retail trade, which will be released any minute. Traders can pay attention to this report. But in the United States, everything is very bad with the information background today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on September 7 for the pound showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 5,437 long contracts and opened 2,427 short contracts. The total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost twice less than the total number of short contracts. Therefore, in general, the mood of speculators is now "bearish." However, traders still have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at this time, there are still excellent opportunities for the growth of the British dollar quotes. Thus, the further fall of the British is not guaranteed. We need graphical sell signals so that they coincide with the data of COT reports.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
Almost all corrective levels are now ignored by traders and the pair. Thus, I consider it necessary to wait for the improvement of the trading situation and the formation of strong signals, which at the moment, there are none.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
