Gold fell to four-week lows last Thursday due to high US retail sales. This is very noteworthy because ahead is the Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy, and a strong statistics could mean that the central bank will be able to cut back on bond purchases.
Frank Cholly, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said there has been a complete revolution in retail sales.
This confirms the idea that the Fed will soon be forced to taper stimulus. And if other US data continue to surprise, gold will have another sell-off. For example, if bond yields and dollar rise, gold could end up at $ 1,720.
Another problem is the lack of interest from new buyers, said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities.
Gainesville Coins analyst Everett Millman also noted that gold ignored its usual drivers, focusing on macro data instead. The best example is the upcoming policy decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Clearly, everyone is paying close attention to any details regarding the timing of bond purchases.
As for the Fed, it is currently monitoring inflation and employment data as both will affect future emission reduction plans. It is also set to release updated economic forecasts and a scatter chart.
Most likely, the forecast will show the rate of inflation growth, as well as the potential schedule of rate hikes. So far, 7 out of 18 officials see an increase by 2022, while most see it in 2023.
Other data to look out for this week are new home permits (Tuesday), existing home sales (Wednesday), Bank of England policy decision (Thursday), US jobless claims and new home sales (Friday).
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on Friday at a virtual event called "Fed Listens: Perspectives on the Pandemic Recovery".
Elections will also take place in Canada on Monday, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced early elections.
