Overview:
NZD/USD is consolidating with bearish bias after hitting 20-month high of 0.8677 on Thursday. Kiwi sentiment boosted after Finance Minister Bill English confirmed the 2013 budget would show NZ government still on track to return to a surplus in the year to June 2015; strong NZ housing data for March from Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, fanning speculation that RBNZ might raise interest rates - RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer had said Monday central bank could raise the Official Cash Rate sooner than expected if housing prices continue to rise. NZD/USD is also underpinned by positive investor risk appetite; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY as weak yen sentiment supports the cross; NZD-USD yield gap; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains tempered by weaker commodity prices; positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, while stochastics stays elevated at overbought, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Recommendation:
Sell below 0.8635 with downside targets at 0.8562 and 0.851.
Support levels:
S1 - 0.8562 (Thursday's low)
S2 - 0.8510 (Wednesday's low)
S3 - 0.8450 (Tuesday's low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.8635 with upside targets at 0.8677 and 0.872.
Resistance levels:
R1 - 0.8677 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 0.872
R3 - 0.878
