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FX.co ★ Europe to face gas deficit this winter

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Analysis News:::2021-09-22T12:45:13

Europe to face gas deficit this winter

Europe to face gas deficit this winter

Both the unexpectedly cold winter and abnormally hot summer have depleted Europe's storage facilities. Now, it is really difficult to alleviate the shortage of natural gas.

Amos Hochstein, the State Department's senior adviser for energy security, accused the Russian government of poor gas supplies. He supposes that some European regions will not have enough gas to use for heating. What is more, the weather is unpredictable and meteorologists warn about a cold winter. While some countries will buy expensive gas, others will have to allocate resources by quotas.

The State Department's senior adviser for energy security emphasizes that Russian supplies are "inexplicably low" especially in comparison with the previous year. Hochstein believes that "it was a political move linked to Russia's push to proceed with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline".

Fitch, a US credit agency, unveiled two main reasons for the gas deficit. They were last year's cold winter and abnormally hot summer. Everyone loves hot summer days, but gas-fired power plants had to increase their capacity many times to ensure the operation of cooling air conditioners in homes, organizations, restaurants, and offices. There was no time to think about economical consumption.

At the same time, Russia's Gazprom managed to fulfill all its long-term gas supply contracts and refused to book additional capacities for the gas transit through the territory of Ukraine for September and October. In addition, the Russian gas company bought only one third of the proposed transit capacity of the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline for the next month.

At the end of the summer, the Russian Ministry of Energy warned that the reserves of Gazprom's underground storage facilities that should cover consumption during the cold period were becoming smaller. At the same time, representatives of the Russian energy company reported that there was a specialized reserve that would help to cope with cold weather.

However, Amos Hochstein continues to insist that the Gazprom management is just pursuing the main goal that is to achieve an approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Notably, the main gas pipeline runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. This newly built pipeline goes through the economic zones and territorial waters of five countries, including Germany, Denmark, Russia, Finland, and Sweden. It is obvious that this pipeline, which is working at full capacity, is simply not profitable for the US, as it wants to provide Europe with its liquefied natural gas. Joe Biden's administration previously admitted that the US was in a difficult situation because of the Nord Stream 2. That is why the US authorities are trying to prevent the launch of this project.

Although the construction of the pipeline has already been completed, it is still impossible to launch it without the permission of the regulatory authorities of Berlin and Brussels. The European Parliament has already expressed its cons regarding this gas pipeline, supporting the American advisor.

A group of deputies from the European Parliament has already asked the European Commission to investigate the role of Gazprom in this situation in order to prove manipulations of the Russian energy company. The European deputies are convinced that the high gas prices announced by Gazprom pose a real threat and are aimed at obtaining permission from Brussels to launch the pipeline.

The management of Gazprom, in turn, provides cautious comments, explaining that the company supplies gas legally and according to the requests of consumers, as well as depending on its existing capabilities. Gazprom also confirmed its explanations with figures: for 8.5 months of 2021, gas exports to non-CIS countries were increased to 138.6 billion cubic meters or by 17.4% compared to the previous year.

In general, all these conflicts between the leading powers have led to the energy crisis in Europe. As a result, the price of gas began growing rapidly. In the light of the rising economy of the UK and the European Union, the meager supply does not meet the mounting demand. The fact is that in the summer, gas prices began rising very fast. In June, the price of this raw material in Europe was a little more than $300 per 1 thousand cubic meters. However, on August 30, the price exceeded $600, on September 9, gas was estimated at $700, and on September 14, it cost $800. Notably, on September 15, gas prices hit the highest level of $982.

Analyst InstaForex
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