According to the results of yesterday's trading, the main currency pair grew. However, given the very frequent change in market sentiment and the fact that the reduction of the asset purchase program is already practically embedded in the pricing of the US currency, it would be wrong to call yesterday's EUR/USD growth accidental. In addition, there was a risk mood on the financial markets yesterday, and this factor hardly ever contributes to the demand for the US dollar, which is a protective asset. The market quickly played back the Fed's optimistic comments about the beginning of the reduction of economic incentives this year, after which it began to buy the single European currency. As for yesterday's macroeconomic statistics, all of them for both the eurozone and the US came out in the red zone. Looking at today's economic calendar, it is worth highlighting the numerous speeches of Fed officials. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for 15:00 London time, stands out. At the same time, data on new housing sales in the United States will be released, which can not be attributed to the archive.
Daily
Before we begin to consider the technical picture on the daily timeframe, I would like to recall the statement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. He said that in November, the regulator might announce reducing the quantitative easing (QE) program. In this regard, the US dollar may have an advantage over all major competitors, including in pair with the single currency. It remains to understand how much such an event is taken into account in the US currency price. In the meantime, having reached 1.1684, which is 20 points above the support level of 1.1664, the pair turned in a southerly direction and ended the session on September 23 at 1.1738. At the same time, it should be noted that the quote rose higher to the previously broken support level of 1.1752. However, having met strong sales resistance there, it bounced down. What can we expect from the main currency pair at today's trading? If the euro bulls continue to lift the exchange rate, they will have to face strong resistance from sellers near 1.1765. It will happen if they want to raise the price above yesterday's highs of 1.1752.
As can be seen on the chart, the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator is located near 1.1765 and the lower border of the cloud of this indicator. In passing 1.1765, the next obstacle will be waiting for the players to increase already at 1.1785, where the blue Kijun line and 50 simple moving average converged. Moving on to trading ideas, I will give the highest priority to sales. First, this is facilitated by the recent statement of the Fed about the imminent curtailment of QE. Second, the resistances on the pair's path to 1.1800 already look very strong. Thus, I propose to observe the price behavior in the area of 1.1750-1.1780, and when there are reversal patterns of candle analysis on this or smaller timeframes, try to open short positions. Purchases seem to be a more risky positioning, but if characteristic candle signals appear in the price zone of 1.1725-1.1700, you can try to buy with small goals. By the way, taking into account the completion of weekly trading, I do not recommend putting up large profits on sales. I believe that it is not necessary to postpone open positions to Monday.
