GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and continues the process of falling. Closing quotes at the level of 23.6% (1.3692) allows us to count on a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3603). Closing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 23.6% will work in favor of the UK currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3747) on the small Fibo grid and above. The information background on Friday for the pound/dollar pair was practically absent. In addition to the speeches of the members of the Fed board on this day, which did not give anything to traders, there was also a speech by a member of the MPC of the Bank of England, Silvana Tenreyro, which also did not give anything. Thus, for the further growth of the US currency against the British, new information is now needed that will support the demand for the dollar. There was no such thing on Friday, and it is also not expected on Monday.
Although today there will be a speech by Christine Lagarde and the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Perhaps Bailey will say something important. However, I do not expect this, because the Bank of England held a meeting last week, and traders have already received all the possible information. It is unlikely that anything will change in Bailey's rhetoric in just a few days. Interestingly, tomorrow, the hit parade of speeches by representatives of the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Fed will continue. On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, as well as Catherine Mann, a member of the MPC of the Bank of England, will speak again. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will also make a speech. Let me remind you that the problem of increasing the national debt limit is now acute in America. In the coming weeks, the US Congress must vote for its increase, otherwise, the US may declare a technical default and be unable to pay its bills and finance all government structures. Based on this, Janet Yellen's speech will play almost the most important role.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the corrective level of 38.2%, a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3642) on the senior Fibo grid. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British and a resumption of growth in the direction of the levels of 1.3746 and 1.3791. There are no new emerging divergences today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - FOMC member Charles Evans will deliver a speech (12:00 UTC).
US - FOMC member John Williams will deliver a speech (13:00 UTC).
US - FOMC member Lael Brainard will give a speech (16:50 UTC).
UK - Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech (18:00 UTC).
On Monday, Andrew Bailey will give a speech in the UK and this is the most interesting event of the day. There will be nothing similar in scale in America. However, even the speech of the governor of the Bank of England may not cause any reaction from traders. The information background will be weak today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from September 21 on the British showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators opened 7,519 long contracts and 13,107 short contracts. It allowed bear traders to catch up with the bulls in all categories of traders. In the picture above, you can see that the number of long and short contracts for all categories of traders now coincides. Although a week ago, the situation was the opposite. Thus, the chances of the British dollar's growth are decreasing again after the latest COT report. Neither bulls nor bears have an advantage at this time.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new purchases of the pound when rebounding from the level of 1.3603 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3692 and 1.3731. Or when closing above the level of 1.3692 with targets of 1.3731 and 1.3747. It was necessary to open sales at the rebound from the level of 1.3747. Now, they can be kept open, but I do not expect a strong drop in the pair or a close in profit.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
