Hello, dear colleagues!
Yesterday, EUR/USD tumbled amid an increase in bond yields, the upcoming testimony of the Fed's Jerome Powell who may confirm the regulator's tapering plans, and growing default expectations for China Evergrande. This is going to be a busy week as many monetary policy officials, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will deliver their speeches. As for today's macroeconomic calendar, market participants will focus on US consumer confidence. Now, let's get straight to analyzing EUR/USD charts.
Daily chart
Yesterday, EUR/USD fell below the key level of 1.1700, closing at 1.1695. However, it means nothing as there is plenty of time before the end of the trading week. Moreover, it would be unwise to draw any conclusions based on a single candlestick that closes above or below any level. Anyway, if the downward trend in EUR/USD extends today, the price is likely to test the key support level of 1.1664. Taking into account that the quote is falling at the moment of writing, this assumption may come true. If bullish sentiment increases and buyers gain control over the market, the pair is expected to return above 1.1700 and go up to 1.1755, the high as of September 22.
H1 chart
According to the H1 chart, bears are protecting the level of 1.1700. The quote attempted to return above this mark several times but a Doji candlestick was formed, and the price closed below 1.1700. Since then, EUR/USD has been bearish. From my viewpoint, it is too late to sell the pair. The perfect time for that was after the formation of the Doji candlestick below 1.1700. Nevertheless, bulls are under strong pressure at the moment. They are failing in all their attempts to push the price above 1.1700. Anyway, you should consider selling the pair when the quote falls to the broken support level of 1.1685. Generally speaking, you may open short positions in the 1.1680-1.1700 range. Those who are looking for higher and more profitable prices should consider selling the pair around the strong technical level of 1.1750. As for long positions, there is only one trading option. If the price fails to break the support level of 1.1664 and a clear bullish reversal candlestick is formed, you may open long positions around 1.1700. To sum up, I'd like to point out that EUR/USD buying seems risky right now. So, do not forget about placing a stop-loss order.
Have a nice trading day!
