As already noted in previous articles of this week, at the auction on September 20-24, the US dollar strengthened across a wide range of the market, including against its Australian namesake. In Australia, the program of vaccination of the population against COVID-19 is quite successful. It is especially typical for the state of New South Wales. And in the whole country, the situation with the increase in the number of coronavirus infections is quite favorable. This factor may mean that the Australian government will refrain from introducing blockages and restrictions, which will be a good help for the economic recovery from COVID-19. We can also expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will soon begin the process of reducing the purchase of bonds, and this can not but affect the strengthening of the Australian dollar.
Weekly
In the meantime, the "Aussie" is trading in a fairly narrow range, even by weekly standards. As a result of the decline last week, the AUD/USD pair fell under the orange 200 and black 89 moving averages, and also closed the last five trading days below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. This factor may indicate bearish sentiment for the pair. However, until the key support level of 0.7109 is broken, it would be wrong to draw unambiguous conclusions. In addition, the quote is located within the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which in itself is a zone of uncertainty. It is also necessary to indicate the range of 0.7480-0.7109, the exit from which can determine the subsequent direction of the course, and the direction in which the pair will exit the cloud. In my opinion, going up will be fraught with the greatest difficulties, since now the resistance for the pair is represented by the 200 and 89 exponents, and the blue Kijun line and the 50 simple moving average are just above 0.7480. However, at this stage of time, the pair can move in both directions, so let's consider the technical picture at a younger time interval.
Daily
On the daily chart, the bears' attempts to bring the price down from the Ichimoku cloud have not yet brought the desired result. Their opponents are actively resisting this course of events. But the trading range on the daily chart is much narrower, and it can be designated as 0.7319-0.7223. The exit from this daily range may indicate the near-term prospects of the "Aussie". In the meantime, the technical picture remains extremely contradictory, so I think it is incorrect to give trading recommendations here and now. I suggest waiting for the release of their daily range or any other strong signals about the upcoming movement of the quote, and only after that make decisions about entering the market.
