Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued to trade flat on Wednesday. For the last few days we have not formed a new horizontal channel, hoping that after the pair has spent quite a long time in two horizontal channels, a trend movement will start. However, quotes continue to move sideways for the third trading day, so the new side channel at 1.1584-1.1627, which is even narrower than the two previous ones. That is, in fact, now the euro/dollar pair has weakened its movement even more. If on Tuesday it was still possible to understand such a movement, today one macroeconomic report was published in the United States. True, as practice shows, there was no reaction to it. However, the report on durable goods orders in the US was neither weak nor strong. A decrease in volumes was recorded, but traders were waiting for an even larger fall. Thus, we can say that the report is neutral. Now what? Now it remains to wait for the pair to leave the third horizontal channel and finally start forming a trend movement. For the absence of a trend, we still do not recommend considering signals from the MACD indicator.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture looks a little better on the 5 minute timeframe. Only one signal was formed during the day - to sell - and that was very inaccurate. Nevertheless, under certain circumstances, novice traders could earn a little on it. But for this, one would have to deviate from the rules of the trading system and take profits without waiting for the Take Profit to trigger. After the price rebounded from the 1.1617-1.1622 area, the price went down 25 points, which is still very small. The quotes could not go down to the nearest target level. Therefore, this signal could be ignored due to its weakness. If novice traders nevertheless opened short positions, they could close them in a small profit or at a Stop Loss set at breakeven. Unfortunately, the flat continues and it is very difficult to count on even several strong signals within one day. It is very good that only one signal has formed today, since a larger number of them could lead to losses.
How to trade on Thursday:
The pair left another horizontal channel and immediately entered a new one on the 30-minute timeframe. Thus, it is still not very convenient to trade on the 30-minute TF, and we still do not recommend tracking signals from the MACD indicator. We advise you to wait for the formation of a trend line or trend channel. The key levels on the 5-minute timeframe for October 28 are 1.1576, 1.1617 - 1.1622, 1.1666. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. The European Union will sum up the results of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, which is always very interesting. Markets do not expect any important decisions from the central bank, however, ECB President Christine Lagarde may share important information at a press conference. Also an important report on US GDP for the third quarter will be published tomorrow. These events can provoke a stronger movement in the pair.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
