Overview:
NZD/USD is consolidating, RBNZ expected to leave its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5%, but central bank's statement will be closely scrutinized for any clues about when it might move to raise the rate. NZD/USD supported by negative USD sentiment; NZD-USD yield gap; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD upside limited by weak commodity prices. Kiwi is also vulnerable to 01:45 GMT April HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI data. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although latter is at oversold; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point at 0.8405. The pair is likely to trade in lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended only if the pair remain below its pivot with keep in view the first target at 0.833 (March 25 low), breach of this target will further move the pair downward and expect the second target at 0.83. Pivot point stands at 0.8393. In case the price moves in opposite direction and returns from its support and moves above its pivot point then it will be most favorably to trade in higher range and buy position is recommended above its pivot with first target at 0.843 and second target at 0.8460.
Support levels:
S1 - 0.8323 (March 25 low), S2 - 0.83 , S3 - 0.8254 (200-day moving average).
Resistance levels:
R1 - 0.843, R2 - 0.8460 (Monday's high), R3 - 0.8491 (Friday's high)
