The EURUSD pair has been falling in price against the US dollar for a long time. This momentum already has a long-term level. When can we expect the end of the downward momentum?
If we are guided by the expiration of the quarterly futures contract, then the best time for a reversal will be the week after December 13. Switching to a new contract, as a rule, increases interest in opening opposite positions for hedging risks. This may be the reason for the formation of the first level of reversal on the D1 timeframe. So far, it is not worth considering the pair's growth as a reversal movement, even if the euro strengthens by 1-2%. It is better to use these prices to search for a sell pattern since, before a strong reversal, a false breakout in the direction of the current momentum always follows.
A significant medium-term resistance so far is the weekly short-term zone of 1.1379-1.1362. Going beyond the average course of the current month increases the probability of the formation of a corrective upward model. It is growth that will be the key to finding favorable selling prices towards long-term momentum.
The probability of a complete reversal from the current levels without the formation of the model discussed above is 20%.
