Bitcoin's strong recovery in early November served as a catalyst for bold predictions by crypto analysts. Standing apart among others is the forecast of the anonymous expert PlanB, that Bitcoin will reach $98k by end of November.
However, as Bitcoin lost 20% of its all-time high, the specialist backed up and stated that the forecast for a value in the region of $98k could be his first mistake. And this is not surprising, because the first cryptocurrency is not only far from the mark so desired by the bulls, but is also on the verge of a trend reversal and the launch of a bear market.
PlanB became widely known for almost accurately predicting the Bitcoin price movement in August and September. However, by October, the first signal of the problematic nature of their calculations appeared, when the BTC price deviated from forecasts by 3%.
At the end of September, the situation is even more deplorable: according to PlanB, Bitcoin should drive at full steam to the $98k mark, and instead, the asset approached the upward trend line starting from $40k, which seriously spoils the nerves of the crypto community.
At the same time, the analyst states that the bold forecast for BTC was not part of the algorithms of the S2F model, which calculates price movement based on the ratio of the scarcity of coins in circulation and their real value.
Thus, PlanB retained its reputation and stated that the S2F model continues to work, and the cryptocurrency is confidently moving towards the $100k mark per coin in December.
It is worth noting that, in addition to the analyst's calculations, there are a large number of factors indicating the continued growth of the coin after the current correction. First, it is the still high level of inflation in the world, which forces institutional investors to invest in crypto in order to protect capital. This is confirmed by statistics, stating that whales have accumulated about 90k BTC over the past week, which indicates a desire to play on the rise.
The government of El Salvador also increased its investments in Bitcoin, buying another 100 coins. In addition, there is an increase in the volume of dollar stablecoins, which indicates the prudence of investors and their willingness to resume buying cryptocurrency.
The fundamental positive is underpinned by strong on-chain activity in the Bitcoin network. The number of unique addresses and transaction volumes remain at a high level, commensurate with the period when the new ATH was established. This may be a bullish signal, which indicates the patience of the coin's audience and their desire to resume the bullish rally.
In addition, the indicator of the ratio of realized and market value indicates the minimum profit for investors at the current stage, which indicates a local sale and absorption of these volumes in the region of $55k - $58k. It is also a bullish sign, indicating that investors are willing to wait for further price increases.
Due to the fundamental positive, the asset is located near the final resistance zone, in the area of the 0.382 Fibo level, the breakdown of which raises the question about the resumption of the medium-term upward trend.
The coin managed to gain a foothold in the $57k area, and as of 10:00 UTC, it is trading at $57.1k, where a good support line formed. At the same time, I see the likelihood of a further decline, since after an impulsive growth, the price rested on the Fibo level of 0.382, where the resistance zone passes.
Bitcoin has already made an unsuccessful assault on this mark, and if it fails to gain a foothold outside the $58k mark in the near future, it will move to the lower border of the fluctuation range near the previous local minimum, which is fraught with an even greater decline and deepening of the correction.
Despite this, I expect the price to rise further above $57k after a local correction triggered by impulse growth. The minimum bullish target for the day is a breakdown of the 0.382 Fibo level and an exit to the final part of the fluctuation range.
The situation has stabilized and the impulse upward rebound indicates the market's desire to start a bullish rally. This indicates that the squeezing out of "weak hands" is completed and the price is approaching the growth point, and the collection of liquidity in the lower part of the fluctuation area is complete.
