Yesterday in the American session, the British pound managed to break the key and critical support level of 1.1230 reaching the low of 1.1111.
Investors were cautious and took refuge in the US dollar due to hawkish comments from some Fed officials reminding investors of their commitment to maintaining their aggressive tightening stance. Their remarks put pressure on the GBP/USD which has accumulated a correction of almost 400 pips in two days.
Risk aversion in the markets helped the dollar gain strength against its rivals. The USDX dollar index continued to rise after the monthly report released by ADP revealed that the US private sector employment increased more than expected in September.
In the American session, the US government employment data will be published. A better-than-expected figure could favor the US dollar and the British pound could drop below the level of 1.11. In case the data is worse than expected, we could see a recovery of the British pound and it could even reach the level of 1.14.
On October 5, the British pound took a negative turn after having reached 1.1494, close to the psychological level of 1.15. Since October 4, the eagle indicator has been generating overbought signals and we could see a technical correction from this level towards levels of 1.11.
According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the British pound keeps the uptrend channel intact and additionally we can see a small downtrend channel. If it remains within this bullish channel in the next few hours, we could see a recovery of the GBP pair and it could reach the SMA 21 located at 1.1326 and even the EMA 200 located at 1.1397.
On the contrary, a sharp break of the uptrend channel formed since September 23 could be a clear sign of the bearish cycle so that the price could reach the area of 6/8 Murray around 1.0742 in the coming days.
A clear signal for GBP to resume its bullish cycle should consolidate above 7/8 Murray at 1.1230. Above this level, the outlook could be positive and we could quickly reach the 1.14 level (200 EMA) and even the psychological level of 1.15.
The area 1.1330 (21 SMA) to 1.14 (200 EMA) has become a strong barrier for the British pound. On the conditions of a pullback around this area and if it fails to consolidate above this level, there will be a strong signal to sell below these levels with targets at 1.1230 (7/8), 1.10, and 1.0742 (6/8).
