The equity market has dropped significantly for the third time in four days. Apparently, the big correction has already started.
All the main stock indices incurred losses at the close on Wednesday. The Dow shed 1.3%, the NASDAQ composite decreased by 1.8%, and the S&P 500 declined by 1.2%.
On Thursday, futures on S&P500 are showing signs of a possible rebound of the US stock market after yesterday's fall. The S&P 500 futures grew by 0.6%.
Asian stock markets closed mixed in the morning: Japan stock indices tumbled by 0.5%, while China's stock indices added 0.3%.
As for the commodity market, oil prices have been declining for two consecutive days as well as with the US equity market. Brent fell below $70. Such a drop may be due to concerns over possible economic problems in the US in the future. On Thursday, oil is trying to recover by 1.4%, hovering at $69.70.
An OPEC meeting was held yesterday. It has not made any decisions on changing oil production quotas. A meeting of OPEC+ countries is expected today. Taking into account the current oil price, OPEC is likely to maintain production restrictions so that oil does not fall even lower. However, when a correction is over and markets start rising again, oil prices will go up again. Bank of America is sticking to the $85-a-barrel forecast for oil in 2022.
The fourth coronavirus wave is not easing. There were 600,000 news cases yesterday. Currently, the US records the biggest rise. Yesterday, there were 120,000 cases. Europe and Germany recorded 72,000 cases, while France and Britain saw an increase of 50,000 new cases yesterday.
The S&P 500 index is trading at 4,513. It is likely to remain in the range of 4,580 - 4,550. The US market fell considerably on Wednesday. Notably, its intraday fall was rather steep. The index closed with a decrease of 1.2%. Today, the stock market opened with an increase. After the first hours of trading, it gained 1.5%. However, large investors decided to lock in profits amid this increase. As a result, the S&P500 index slid to the 50-day moving average and closed lower for the first time since October 14. The 50-day moving average is the standard entry point for large funds to open long positions. Investors who are betting on a rise in the stock market may open long positions at these levels but they should be cautious. The price may start dropping at any moment. At the same time, the US economy remains strong. The employment report for November revealed that the economy added 534 new jobs. The Manufacturing PMI index for November also totaled 61.1%, logging the highest level. Earlier, the Consumer Confidence Index data was published. The reading came in at 109.5, beating expectations. The Fed as well as consumers are worried about high inflation. However high wages and a strong labor market mitigate its native consequences. The US recorded 120,000 news cases yesterday. The country also takes first place in terms of the death toll. There were 1,600 coronavirus-related deaths yesterday. Additionally, the US identified its first known COVID case caused by the Omicron variant.
Today, the US will publish the initial jobless claims report.
The US dollar is trading at 96.00. It is likely to stay in the range of 95.70 - 96.30. The US dollar index was unaffected by a fall in the US market yesterday. Government bonds and the US dollar are safe-haven assets in times of market woes.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2790. It is likely to remain in the range of 1.2700 - 1.2820. The pair is trying to continue its growth amid low oil prices. However, it will soon face a strong resistance level of 1.2800. So, there is a possibility of a retreat.
Conclusion. Traders are anticipating a rebound of the US stock market after a three-day decline.
