First, let's take a look at the larger picture. The Aussie dollar has been under pressure from the Kiwi dollar since its long-term peak reached in November 1984 at 1.7637. It found a long-term low in April 2015 at 1.0050. All in all, it has been a 30-year decline. The rally out of the 2015 low hasn't been that impressive, but we think that more upside should be expected in the longer term and a move towards at least 1.2500 should be expected.
Zooming in a bit, we can see that AUD/NZD has just hit strong resistance at 1.1439 where it has been rejected before and will likely need to gather some energy to be able to break clearly through this resistance. Therefore, we will be looking for a temporary corrective decline towards 1.0880 before the next run higher to try to break above resistance at 1.1439 for the expected rally towards 1.2500.
