The USD/JPY pair is moving along the daily MACD indicator line for the fourth day. This growth is slightly accelerating, and now the price has approached the bullish level of 113.96, surpassing which opens the target range 115.80-116.15. At this time, the Marlin Oscillator is preparing to overcome its own zero line - the border with the territory of a growing trend.
The main impetus for growth is expected tonight, when the FOMC Federal Reserve releases a two-day meeting and a press conference by the Chairman Jerome Powell will take place a little later. Investors expect that the tone of the meeting will be clearly hawkish, which will raise expectations for the start of a cycle of rate hikes and help to strengthen the dollar.
An alternative scenario, however, exists, especially since, from the technical point of view, the price is within relatively narrow boundaries of the signal levels for the medium-term rise and fall. There are two such levels for bears: 113.22 - the price channel line, and 112.54 - November 30 low. Overcoming the latter opens the 110.70 target. The rationale for the weakening dollar is the idea that prices have already built in the expectation of two rate hikes next year. If investors today do not see in the point forecasts of the FOMC members a shift to a tougher position in relation to rates, then a short position on the facts may follow.
On the four-hour scale, the situation has not changed over the last day. The price also moves along the balance indicator line, which emphasizes the neutrality of the moment. The Marlin Oscillator, for its part, also maintains complete neutrality, moving along the zero line.
