As a proxy for the Commodity index, we will look at Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Index Fund. We can see that this fund bottomed on March 16, 2020, at the time when Covid-19 broke out. Since the bottom at 10.41, commodities have rallied strongly to a top at 30.64. In other words, there has been a 200% rally in just a little over 2 years. Since June 2022, we have seen a corrective decline. We expect this correction to have more room to the downside and should ideally continue lower to the 50% corrective target at 20.52 in wave 4 and then we should see wave 5 higher. Wave 5 is expected to break well above the peak of wave 3 at 30.64 with the minimum target seen at 32.81 but it could easily move well above here too.
