The EUR/USD pair is fighting hard to rebound after its last sell-off. As you already know, the price slipped lower as the Dollar Index rebounded. The US data came in mixed on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index rose by 0.5% matching expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment came in at 59.9 points above 59.7 expected, while Pending Home Sales reported a 10.2% drop compared to the 4.4% expected.
Fundamentally, the German Retail Sales, Euro-zone CPI Flash Estimated, and the Core CPI Flash Estimate could move the price tomorrow. It remains to see how the rate reacts in the short term as the FOMC is expected to increase the Federal Funds Rate from 3.25% to 4.00%. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, NFP, Unemployment Rate, and the Average Hourly Earnings represent high-impact indicators.
EUR/USD Bearish Bias!
After dropping below the uptrend line, EUR/USD signaled that the leg higher ended and that the rate could come back down. As long as it stays below the downtrend line, the bias is bearish in the short term.
The parity (1.0000) psychological level represents a static upside obstacle. Only jumping and stabilizing above this level may signal a larger growth. The 0.9999 level represents resistance as well. We have a strong confluence area formed at the intersection between the near-term resistance levels.
EUR/USD Outlook!
A new lower low, a bearish closure below Friday's low of 0.9926 activates more declines at least towards the downtrend line. A larger drop could be confirmed by a valid breakdown below this dynamic support. False breakouts through the downtrend line may announce a new sell-off.
A valid breakout above the downtrend line and through the parity confirm further growth and could help the buyers to go long.
