Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair failed to continue the growth that it started the previous day. After a rather sharp strengthening of the European currency on Wednesday, there were hopes that a new upward trend would now be formed, but the next day the bulls failed to build on their own success. Just one day without a trend movement is not an indicator. Tomorrow, when there will be several interesting reports and events in America and the European Union, the movement may resume and intensify. But so far there is nothing like that. At the same time, the euro/dollar pair on the 30-minute TF continues to remain inside the rising channel, but its location near the upper border allows for an option with a fall to the lower one. Much will depend on tomorrow's statistics. And today there were no important macroeconomic reports. There were publications in America, but they did not arouse any interest among market participants. Thus, there was no reaction to them.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On a 5-minute timeframe, first of all, you should deal with trading levels. The level of 1.1453 is the previous day's high, which was formed after our previous article. The level of 1.1478 is today's high, so it did not participate in trading today. As a result, all trading signals on Thursday were formed near the level of 1.1453. And there were three of them. At first, the pair settled above the level of 1.1453, which allowed novice traders to open long positions. After the formation of this signal, the price went up exactly 15 points, which made it possible to place a Stop Loss order at breakeven. At the beginning of the US trading session, the price returned to the level of 1.1453, so the long position closed in zero profit. However, a new buy signal in the form of a rebound from the level of 1.1453 made it possible to open long positions. The price went up again by about 15 points, and the newcomers had to put the Stop Loss at breakeven again. A little later, the price turned down again and returned to 1.1453. Therefore, the deal closed again at breakeven. The third signal near the level of 1.1453 should no longer be worked out.
How to trade on Friday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, it is clearly visible that the price has finally left the horizontal channel and formed an upward trend. Thus, in the next few days, it will be possible to expect the growth of the European currency and consider long positions on this TF. On the 5-minute timeframe, the levels for January 14 are as follows: 1.1387, 1.1422, 1.1453, 1.1478, 1.1496, 1.1513. Recall that for any transaction, Take Profit of 30-40 points and Stop Loss should be set to breakeven after passing 15 points in the right direction. The deal can also be closed manually near important levels or after the formation of a reverse signal. There will be quite a lot of macroeconomic statistics on Friday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech in the European Union. In the US, an important report on retail sales and secondary reports on industrial production and consumer sentiment will be published. Nevertheless, all together these events may affect the course of trading tomorrow.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
