Bitcoin has already experienced a major correction this year, contrary to all the optimistic long-term forecasts. Although it is growing in popularity among retail investors, Goldman Sachs believes that might not be enough for its value to increase.
Why does the correlation of BTC with global markets grow?
"Over the last two years, as bitcoin has seen wider mainstream adoption, its correlation with macro assets has picked up," Goldman strategists Zach Pandl and Isabella Rosenberg wrote in a note published on Thursday, January 27.
Strong liquidations of positions in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often followed a fall in the stock market. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, Bloomberg wrote.
Correlations with US tech stocks, crude oil, and government bonds have all risen significantly, Goldman Sachs research shows. On the other hand, it negatively correlates with the dollar and real interest rates.
Mainstream adoption can be a double-edged sword
"Mainstream adoption can be a double-edged sword," the strategists wrote. "While it can raise valuations, it will also likely raise correlations with other financial market variables, reducing the diversification benefit of holding the asset class."
BTC's recent fall came as the Federal Reserve moved to tighten monetary policy and hinted at a rate hike.
"Over time, further development of blockchain technology, including applications in the metaverse, may provide a secular tailwind to valuations for certain digital assets," the strategists said. "But these assets will not be immune to macroeconomic forces, including central bank monetary tightening."
BTC/USD is consolidating in the $35,915.72-$37,903.51 corridor. It is not clear how long it is going to stay in this range.
What is important is the fact that bitcoin has stuck between two key levels, $29,000 and $40,000. So far, it is hard to predict what of the two levels the price may go to. Both scenarios are equally possible.
