Over the past 10 days, Bitcoin has touched the downward trend line twice, which prevented the coin from gaining a foothold above $40k. After local consolidation, the cryptocurrency is again approaching the $40.5k mark. The growth of BTC is accompanied by a surge in consumer activity and a sharp upward movement of technical indicators.
On the hourly timeframe, we see the formation of a powerful bullish candle, which confirms the fact of a retest of the $40.5k level. Technical indicators support the upward mood of buyers and go into the overbought zone. But at the same time, the first signs of sellers' activation are visible. In the area of the downward trend line, the bears began to buy off the growth and push the price down, as can be seen by the growing upper wick. Sellers are trying to seize the initiative.
The four-hour chart gives us a more complete picture, where it can be seen that the upward movement began within the rebound from the support level of $36.2k. In the area of $37.3k and $37.8k, local clusters of sales were broken through, thanks to which the price received additional fuel to move to $40k. The 4H chart confirms that there is a struggle for the local area of $39.3k-$39.5k. Bulls are holding positions, but bears are increasing the pressure. Despite this, technical indicators indicate a further increase: the MACD has moved into the green zone, and stochastic and RSI are in the overbought zone.
The daily chart indicates the approach to the final part of the resistance area. Bitcoin has received a significant acceleration due to the growth of volumes and the appearance of large buyers. Technical indicators indicate the continuation of the current trend of price movement due to growing volumes. But the presence of bears is beginning to be felt on a daily timeframe.
Taking into account the volumes that have appeared, as well as the third retest of this zone over the past two weeks, it can be assumed that the $40.5k level will be broken. But subsequently, buyers are unlikely to be able to hold the $40k milestone with a pullback movement, since buyers' positions are very weak globally. Most likely, we are waiting for a downward trend or a false breakdown, as a result of which the price will go to collect liquidity in the range of $32k-$35k.
If the price reaches $40.5k and manages to gain a foothold above it after a pullback movement, we can talk about another consolidation period. Subsequently, the price will decline again beyond the $40k mark, where the $38.9k level will become an important support zone. In any case, a bullish breakdown and consolidation above $40k will be an important bullish signal that will mark the completion of the first stage of the recovery of BTC/ USD quotes.
