The macroeconomic calendar was empty last week. US inflation was the only important report. It marked the start of a series of events that might greatly affect global markets. To begin with, the US Fed will hold an emergency meeting today during the course of which a rate hike could be announced. In addition, tensions in Western Europe mounted on Friday and the weekend. Many countries started to call off their diplomats in Ukraine and advised their citizens to leave the country within 48 hours. It became known on Sunday that Ukrainian airspace could be closed amid the threat of war. Airlines start to cancel flights to Ukraine. Above all else, the US and European media are whipping up tension saying that Russia could attack Ukraine at any moment. At some point, President Zelensky asked for proof of the alleged Russian invasion. Generally speaking, it looks more like mass hysteria fuelled by the Western media.
All markets left to do is react to the news. According to Washington, Russia could invade Ukraine on February 15-16. Other media say Moscow will wait until the Olympic Games are over. No doubt, the situation in Western Ukraine is intense, but could you imagine war on schedule? In other words, the whole world seems to know the exact date Russia will attack, which is nonsense. Nevertheless, there is indeed a possibility of a military conflict, so stock markets might feel additional pressure in the coming days. Russia's officials deny any allegations of a possible attack and say the movement of troops in the country is internal affairs. Talks between the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia are ongoing, but the situation has been extremely difficult so far since neither party wants to concede. Markets' reactions will be hard to predict if war actually erupts. The one thing is clear, it could be a sharp and unexpected response.
