Analysis of Monday's trades:
30M chart of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair traded within the sideways channel on Monday. Yet, a few days ago we could hardly guess it was a flat movement. So, the quote is moving in the range between 1.1279 and 1.1395. The width of the channel is slightly more than 100 pips. The pair could not leave the channel on Monday due to the lack of any events in the macroeconomic calendar. Volatility averaged about 80 pips. Geopolitical risks were the only topic traders could focus on. Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting on February 24. However, it is unclear what the outcome of the summit will be. One thing is clear, tensions will unlikely ease. There have been no grounds for it so far. On Monday, the Security Council met on Ukraine where it recognized the independence of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. This move will likely help to resolve the conflict. In any case, the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has had little effect on the euro and the greenback so far. The forex market is now flat. However, the situation might drastically change if war erupts on the continent of Europe.
M5 chart of EUR/USD
In the 5M time frame, the pair fluctuated during the day. Unfortunately, a potentially strong sell signal was not formed in the European session. The price did not reach the level of 1.1395 by just 4 pips, so it was impossible to open a sell trade. The first signal was produced in the North American session when the quote bounced off 1.1330. Nevertheless, the pair failed to extend the uptrend and remained near this level. There is a high likelihood of a flat and uncertainty in the market due to geopolitical risks.
Trading plan for Tuesday:
In the 30M time frame, the uptrend ended a long time ago. Since neither a trendline nor a channel has been formed yet, the trend remains unclear. The pair has traded in the range between 1.1279 and 1.1395 for six days. Therefore, it is possible to say that the market is flat. The market awaits the outcome of the geopolitical conflict in Western Europe. The target levels in the 5M time frame are seen at 1.1227-1.1234, 1.1279-1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1395, and 1.1418. A stop-loss order should be set at the breakeven point as soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction. On Tuesday, the eurozone's macroeconomic calendar will be empty. Meanwhile, the US will present its business activity and consumer confidence data. The reports will unlikely have any effect on the flat market as the geopolitical situation is now of greater importance.
Basic principles of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to interpret charts:
Support and resistance levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginner traders should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management is the key to success in long-term trading.
