Bitcoin firmly fixed below $38,429.77, which opened the way to $34,196.86. A short-term scenario looks bearish.
Meanwhile, the opinions of crypto experts sound mixed. Is this an attempt to clutch at straws or true optimism?
Ton Weiss: Get ready for another sell-off
Experienced trader Ton Weiss warns bitcoin traders that the asset risks trigger another sell-off.
In a new strategy session, Weiss told his subscribers that bitcoin price action and technical indicators are all flashing bearish signals.
"We are all below the moving average... The 200-day moving average is about to start declining. This is not a good sign... This is a bad looking daily chart. If this candle closes below $38,500, it is too bad. A decline to $25,000 looks somewhat realistic... It is likely to have a snapback to the 50-day moving averages. We could double bottom again with $36,500 and then it could be a disaster from there."
Short-term bear and long-term bull
Although Weiss is bearish on Bitcoin in the short and medium-term, the analyst still believes that BTC may eventually rise above its all-time highs driven by macroeconomic factors.
"In a world of inflation, in a world of tyrannical governments confiscating your money, bitcoin will eventually break this double top and rise above the double top with a vengeance. Remember that the longer bitcoin stays below $65,000, Moving uphill would be equally violent. For me, this is largely a fact. When is this going to happen? I don't know."
Ignore short-term volatility
Nevertheless, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Plan B, a noted analyst, urges traders to ignore the current decline. He relies on the signal of the 200-week moving average, arguing that as long as it is rising, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Locally, the market sentiment looks extremely bearish. The Short-Term Holder Short-Term Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) indicates this. It shows the ratio of short-term outputs to earnings. Glassnode notes that it looks bearish.
Glassnode's analysis points out that SOPR is currently trading below a value of one, which is the cut-off for the majority of STH (short-term holders) to be in profit. In the current market, there have been massive capitulations.
According to Glassnode, this indicates that short-term holders are selling bitcoin at the buy price, closing positions just to break even and not lose their money. The drop in price spooked them and triggered a wave of closings.
