Events are developing so rapidly that it is almost impossible to keep track of the news. Nevertheless, the general nature of the development of the situation is absolutely unambiguous - the Russian Federation has launched a military operation against Ukraine. That is, we are talking about a war on the territory of Europe. Investors are fleeing in panic from the ever-increasing risks. So there is nothing surprising in the fact that the single European currency is losing its position. There is practically no doubt that this trend will not change in the short term. Everything else doesn't matter. Moreover, the European Union itself is aggravating the economic consequences of everything that is happening by suspending the certification of Nord Stream-2. So energy prices are rising at an incredible rate, which will have an extremely negative impact on the European economy. You can forget about any macroeconomic statistics for now. The only thing that determines the dynamics and direction of the markets now is the news from Ukraine.
The EURUSD currency pair accelerated its downward course after the breakdown of the local low on February 14 - 1.1280. As a result, the market is experiencing a full-scale recovery of dollar positions relative to the correction in the period from January 31 to February 4.
The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, locally touching the oversold zone.
Sliding MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator signal a downward move, there is no intersection between the MA lines.
Expectations and prospects:
In this situation, traders are considering the subsequent recovery of the dollar, where the local low of the downward trend at 1.1121 is used as a guideline. There is 1.1230 coordinate as a variable point of support on the bears' way, which can locally contain the ardor of speculators. Thus, the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions should be expected after the price is stable below 1.1230 in a four-hour period.
A complex indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the intense downward move.
