Analysis of Thursday's trades:
30M chart of EUR/USD
EUR/USD was on a losing streak all Thursday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has transformed into war. Therefore, the greenback swelled 200 pips on Thursday. Increased geopolitical risks cause jitters in the market. At the same time, although the pair could have been extremely volatile, a trend movement eventually emerged. The euro/dollar pair had moved in the sideways channel for several weeks, but it immediately plummeted when Russia invaded Ukraine. This is definitely not a trend movement as it is the cause of just one event that, in fact, may affect the pair in the long term.
M5 chart of EUR/USD
In the M5 time frame, the euro plunged by 200 pips. The bearish impulse is likely to continue if the military conflict in Ukraine escalates. As soon as Russia declared war on Ukraine, beginner traders should have stopped trading at all or should have solely gone short. There was a 100% chance that the greenback would strengthen if geopolitical risks surged. In other words, the novice should not have considered any buy signals on Thursday. As for signals to sell the instrument, the first one was produced by the close of the European session. The price settled below the range of 1.1227-1.1234, then went below the area of 1.1170-1.1186 and tested the level of 1.1121. So, the only short position could have brought you a profit of about 90 pips.
Trading plan for Friday:
In the 30M time frame, the uptrend stopped. However, the current plunge should not be seen as a downtrend. Firstly, the movement is very strong. Secondly, there are no pivot points that could form a trendline. Lastly, the quote may reverse on Friday and panic may spread through the market. Therefore, you should be extremely cautious when trading and use a stop-loss order. The target levels in the 5M time frame are seen at 1.0990, 1.1107, 1.1170-1.1186, 1.1227-1.1234, and 1.1279-1.1292. A stop-loss order should be set at the breakeven point as soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Friday and the US will release data on personal income and personal spending as well as durable goods orders. However, the market is unlikely to somehow react to these macroeconomic data as the focus will be solely on the war in Ukraine.
Basic principles of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to interpret a chart:
Support and resistance levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginner traders should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management is the key to success in long-term trading.
