Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have not yet led to anything, nevertheless, the parties announced that they would hold a second meeting. However, it is not yet specified when exactly the second round of negotiations will take place. However, the fact that the parties have already started talking is an exceptionally positive moment. In addition, US President Joe Biden yesterday announced the possibility of easing sanctions in the event of a de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. In other words, there was hope for both the end of the conflict and the end of the sanctions war, with the subsequent mutual cancellation of the sanctions already imposed. Logically, all this should give the markets optimism. But the fact is that the world lives only by headlines in the media. If the world tabloids do not talk about an event, then it means that it does not exist. And here the whole point is that practically nothing is said about these events in the media. A couple of short messages ran through and that was it. No more mentions. If this situation does not change, the dollar will continue to grow. If the world's media come to their senses and start talking about positive aspects, the market will gradually win back a couple of days, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar.
The GBPUSD currency pair during the price pullback returned the quote to the area of the local high on February 25 - 1.3437, where there was a reduction in the volume of long positions and as a result stagnation.
The RSI technical instrument is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period. This signals the high interest of traders in the downward move.
The Alligator H4 indicator signals a downward cycle, there are no intersections between the MA moving lines.
On the chart of the daily period, there is a process of recovery of the downward trend relative to the corrective move in the period from December 21 to January 13.
Expectations and prospects:
In this situation, the price rebound from the level of 1.3437 may lead to a reverse move towards 1.3357-1.3300. This move will indicate the subsequent stage of restoration of dollar positions in the market. The alternative scenario will be relevant if the price stays above 1.3450 in a four-hour period. In this case, a local return of the price to the values of 1.3480-1.3500 is possible.
A complex indicator analysis provides a sell signal in the short term due to the price slowing down from the resistance level. Technical instruments in the intraday period indicate an upward move, this is a residual signal from the closing of the price gap.
