The aussie gained 31 points yesterday on strong gains in commodity markets, with copper up 2.52%, iron ore up 1.79% and coal up 25% as buyers look to replace Russian supplies. However, the US dollar is noticeably stronger. Over the past four days, the dollar index has strengthened by 1.18%, while the Australian dollar has grown by 0.89% over the same time.
On the technical side, the aussie is already tired of growing against the market: on the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator is turning down, on the four-hour chart, Marlin has formed a sideways range. If good data on employment in the US is released today, the price may go under the range of 0.7291-0.7315, consolidate below it, and go further down (0.7227). The 0.7415/30 target will not be reached.
On the four-hour scale, as already noted, Marlin lay sideways, the quote itself is in no hurry to grow in anticipation of the release of US data. We expect the Nonfarm data to be good, near the forecasted 400,000, as in the last six weeks, applications for unemployment benefits have been decreasing.
So, the main scenario is the aussie's attempt to settle under the target range of 0.7291-0.7315, above which it left yesterday, and this exit is close to becoming false.
