Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
A signal to buy emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.0895. However, there was no increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. Some time later, this level was updated again, but this time the signal was to sell. Since the MACD line is in the overbought area, the pair fell by 25 pips. A third and fourth attempt occurred in the afternoon and at the time of each test, the indicator was moving above zero. That allowed the pair to rally by 30 and more than 60 pips, respectively.
Risk appetite grew because of the good news in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is ready for negotiations over Crimea and Donbas, noting that they can "find a compromise on how people will live there." Regarding NATO, Zelensky said he lost interest after they realized that it is not ready to accept Ukraine. These statements were received positively by the markets as they reduce the degree of hostilities in Ukraine.
In terms of statistics, industrial production in Germany and retail sales in Italy did not lead to a surge in volatility because the data completely coincided with the forecasts. And since there are no reports scheduled to be released today, it is likely that the correction will continue, but may end quickly at any moment.
France will publish an employment report in its private sector later, while Italy will publish a report on industrial production. However, there is little chance that these could affect the markets. The vacancy rate and labor turnover in the US, as well as the volume of crude oil inventories, will also not bring down dollar nor help euro because everyone is focused on the situation in Ukraine.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0945 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1005 (thicker green line on the chart). Although there is little chance for a strong rally today, an upward correction is possible. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.0904, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0945 and 1.1005.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0904 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0834. Pressure will return if data from the eurozone is weaker than the forecast. The breakdown of the yearly low will also lead to a new sell-off and intensification of the bearish trend. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0945, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0904 and 1.0834.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
