Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
A signal to buy emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.0945. Coincidentally, the MACD line was above zero, so the pair rose by 40 pips. The same thing happened in the afternoon, around 1.1005. After a short pause, buyers continued to push euro up, making sellers lose profit. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.
As expected, the latest employment data in France and industrial production in Italy did little change to the market. There was also no reaction to the labor market report from the US as traders bought euro ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled for today.
In light of high inflation, many are expecting the central bank to take a tougher stance on support measures and interest rates. That will be very favorable for the euro. However, the US will also release its latest data on inflation, which could return demand to dollar provided that the figure is higher than expected. Many experts said February will be the peak of consumer inflation in the US, but after recent events, especially in the energy market, an inflation of 8.0% can only be the beginning of what the US will face in the near future. There will also be a report on US jobless claims, and its figure could also influence the direction of EUR/USD today.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1070 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1141 (thicker green line on the chart). A rally will occur if the ECB takes a more aggressive approach on monetary policy. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.1036, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1070 and 1.1141.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1036 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0973. Pressure will return if the ECB announces a soft monetary policy, and if the US releases a strong inflation report. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.1070, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1036 and 1.0973.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
