Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to raise the rate for the first time in three years by 0.25%, and also announced 6 more increases this year. In addition, Jerome Powell noted that the main goal of the Fed now is price stability, so all means and methods are being thrown into the fight against high inflation. Powell also noted that at the next meeting, a decision may be made to start selling treasury and mortgage bonds, which have accumulated on the bank's balance sheet for almost $ 9 trillion. All these measures mean a tightening of monetary policy. As we have said many times before, any tightening of policy is a potentially negative factor for cryptocurrencies and stock markets. As well as for any other risky assets. However, yesterday, the reaction of the markets was not quite unambiguous. Bitcoin rose, the US stock market rose, the dollar fell. We believe that, firstly, this is not entirely logical, and secondly, the market could have won back a 0.25% rate increase in advance, since no one doubted that it would be raised. Nevertheless, for bitcoin, all of the above practically does not change the picture of what is happening. In 2022, the Fed will tighten monetary policy in any case. The only question is at what pace. But one way or another, the demand for risky assets can and should fall. Naturally, this does not mean now that bitcoin should collapse to $10,000 and trade there in the next few years. Nevertheless, we want to draw attention to the fact that the fundamental background for it remains negative.
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed since yesterday either. The number 1 cryptocurrency in the world continues to be located clearly in the middle of the side channel between the levels. Accordingly, its growth yesterday is the same movement as the day before, and two days earlier. The cryptocurrency continues to consolidate, and the bulls do not have enough strength to start a new "bullish" trend. In principle, we do not expect any new "bullish" trend in the near future. The situation with geopolitics in Eastern Europe is an additional risk factor. In the first weeks of the military conflict, bitcoin even received support due to a strong outflow of capital from Ukraine and Russia, but it still could not overcome the important levels of 61.8% Fibonacci and $ 45,408. Thus, in the coming days, bitcoin may even grow to these levels, but further growth is questionable, no matter what forecasts are given by "crypto experts" and billionaires who own a huge number of coins. Recall that one of the most popular forecasts for last year - growth to $ 100,000 - did not come true. All the latest forecasts of the analyst PlanB - did not come true. Therefore, we remind you that forecasts for cryptocurrencies should be from experts who are as uninterested in their growth as possible.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" failed to overcome the level of $ 45,408 and began a new round of downward movement within the framework of the downward trend that has been observed for 5 months. However, the price is also now inside the side channel of $34,267 - $45,408. Therefore, it may trade between its borders for some time. If one of the boundaries is overcome, then we will get a new trend for the next few weeks.
