The GBP/USD currency pair was also trading on Monday, as they say, "neither fish nor meat". The pair remained slightly above the moving average line for most of the day, having failed to overcome the important Murray level of "8/8" - 1.3184. Thus, both the euro and the pound met insurmountable obstacles on their way up, from which both currencies had already bounced just a couple of weeks ago. That is, the technical pictures of both instruments now look almost identical. If so, then in the case of the pound sterling, a new fall is also expected. Recall that the pound is an even riskier currency than the euro. And those sanctions and the rhetoric that is voiced in the UK says only one thing: London is one of the most zealous opponents of the Russian Federation. In particular, it was London that proposed to the European Union to abandon Russian oil and gas. And voila, this week the European Parliament will consider the rejection of oil purchases in the Russian Federation.
The United States actively supports Britain in this matter. However, Washington can be understood. The Russian Federation for them is one of two world rivals, the chance to weaken which it is impossible not to take advantage of. America practically does not depend on the Russian economy in any way, it does not import oil and gas from there, and the amount of goods and services supplied by American companies to Russia is not so great to worry about. In any case, ordinary Americans and American companies will bear losses, as always, and they will shift all risks and loss of profit to ordinary Americans again. It's not like Joe Biden will pay out of his pocket for any sanctions against the Russian Federation. However, this judgment is true for all world leaders. The upper classes are fighting, the lower classes are paying for the war. But the British economy may be under a more serious blow, as it is more dependent on the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation. And it also depends on the European economy, which may also suffer serious losses if it refuses to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia.
London is actively fighting against the oligarchs from Russia.
Britain was one of the first countries in the world to impose sanctions against Russian oligarchs, believing that they were supposed to influence Vladimir Putin and stop the military operation in Ukraine. Yesterday, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said that all the sanctions imposed against Russian oligarchs will never be lifted, and all their property will be confiscated forever. It seems that Britain is even ready to change its legislation for the sake of such a case. Recall that several yachts worth several hundred million dollars were arrested, as well as the Chelsea football club, which belongs to Roman Abramovich. Moreover, Russian oligarchs are banned from entering the UK. And many EU countries are beginning to follow this example. For example, yesterday it became known that Poland is ready to arrest and confiscate all Russian property on its territory.
At the same time, London understands that in the near future, the oil and gas market will be very much transformed, and to continue to put pressure on Moscow and not lift sanctions two months after their introduction, only one thing will be needed. Replace Russian oil with other oil. Therefore, the UK government is going to conduct a new round of licensing of oil and gas fields in the North Sea. Thus, new investments may flow into the British oil and gas industry in the near future, which will allow the country to develop new fields and extract more oil. London understands that they can also sell oil to the European Union, which in the near future may refuse to buy Russian oil and make good money on it, given the current prices for "black gold". Therefore, as mentioned earlier, a lot of things are going to change in the world now. And this "much" will affect the economy of many countries of the world.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 101 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Tuesday, March 22, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3065 and 1.3267. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a possible resumption of the downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.3153
S2 – 1.3123
S3 – 1.3092
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.3184
R2 – 1.3214
R3 – 1.3245
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair has started an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, which can end very quickly since the level of 1.3184 cannot be overcome. Thus, at this time, it is possible to stay in buy orders with targets of 1.3214 and 1.3245 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It will be possible to consider short positions no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average with targets of 1.3092 and 1.3062.
Explanations to the illustrations:
Linear regression channels - help to determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong now.
Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.
Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
