Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair was again moving very indistinctly on Wednesday. The pair settled below the rising channel a day earlier, so we concluded that now the downward movement will continue. In principle, this is what happened, but still, a rather strong rollback to the top began in the afternoon. The volatility was again quite high - about 80 points - so it cannot be said that now it is flat, and traders are resting in the Maldives. However, the bears have big problems with moving down. Like bulls moving up. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave another speech today, however, judging by the way the pair moved during the day, this time the head of the Fed did not say anything important. This is logical, since Powell, who speaks at least twice a week, cannot please the markets with new and important information every time. Even earlier this week, when he announced the Fed was ready to raise rates more quickly and strongly, the US dollar did not rise much. Simply because it is already clear to everyone: the Fed will raise rates throughout 2022.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the movements were finally those that can be worked out and on which you can earn. There were few signals today, just one, but still the movement was trending most of the day, and it's nice. The levels of 1.1046 and 1.0961 were adjusted to the levels of 1.1040 and 1.0964 today. The only trading signal was formed after the price overcame the level of 1.1019, which we wanted to remove from the chart yesterday. After the formation of a sell signal, the price went down almost 50 points, but just barely failed to reach 1.0961. Therefore, the signal to close a short position was not received. Nevertheless, novice traders had plenty of time to close the deal in profit. And even if they waited until the evening, they still got 10-20 points of profit. Therefore, today can be considered positive. Now we can only hope that the pair will not start trading flat and will maintain the trend mood.
How to trade on Thursday:
The pair has consolidated below the ascending channel on the 30-minute timeframe, so we expect to see a continuation of the fall of the European currency. So far, there are obvious problems with this, despite the ultra-hawkish rhetoric of the Fed and the ultra-dovish rhetoric of the European Central Bank. However, there are more chances to see a downward movement now. It is recommended to trade by levels 1.0932, 1.0964, 1.1019, 1.1040, 1.1070, 1.1106 on the 5-minute TF tomorrow. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events or macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday in either the European Union or the United States. The geopolitical topic is also already fading into the background, at least for market participants. There is no aggravation of the situation in Ukraine (although the probability of this remains). Negotiations between Kiev and Moscow are not progressing (although the likelihood of progress remains). Therefore, now the market has calmed down and is ready to trade in a more familiar mode for everyone.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
