EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading with minimal decline and with low volatility on Friday. The pair failed to pass even 50 points during the day, although the macroeconomic background on that day was very strong. What are at least reports on inflation in the European Union or on unemployment and the labor market in the United States worth? However, there was no market reaction to such data. With that, perhaps, there was actually a reaction, but it is unlikely that a movement of 20 points after each of the reports is what traders were waiting for. The biggest surprise was the lack of reaction to inflation in the EU, which accelerated from 5.9% to 7.5%. No matter what the reaction should have been, it should have been in principle to such strong data. Now it is very interesting, what will European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde say at her next speech, who "does not expect stagflation in the eurozone"? However, the pair spent the entire day in a blatant flat, which is clearly visible.
Thus, trading signals, of which a great many were formed during the day, do not even make sense to consider. The pair has been moving all day in the area of the Ichimoku indicator lines and the extreme level of 1.1036. Therefore, as soon as any signal was formed, the price immediately appeared at the next level or line. Therefore, none of the signals should have been worked out. It was already perfectly clear at the beginning of the US trading session that there would be no movements on this day.
COT report:
The latest, Commitment of Traders (COT) report turned out to be as neutral as possible and did not show any serious changes in the mood of professional traders. The non-commercial group closed about 7,000 contracts long positions and 4,500 short positions during the reporting week. The net position of this group decreased by 2,500. At the same time, the total number of long positions still exceeds the total number of short positions of major players. That is, their mood is still bullish, although the euro has been falling for 14-15 months. Earlier, we have already drawn attention to the fact that in January and February, major players increased longs on the euro currency. In theory, this should have led to the growth of the currency itself. However, the euro did not show anything other than the usual slight correction. Since it was in January-February, when the geopolitical situation in the world and in Europe began to deteriorate sharply, we assume that at that time the demand for the US dollar was growing very much. That is why there was an increase in the euro/dollar pair, despite the fact that the demand for euros among market participants was also growing. The demand for the dollar just grew faster and stronger. Now the factor of geopolitics remains in force, therefore, with the bullish mood of the major players, it is quite possible to expect a new fall in the European currency. To some extent, this is a paradox, but a paradox explained by the current circumstances that have developed in the world.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 4. An empty calendar of macroeconomic events, a complex fundamental background.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 4. The pound may fall again due to geopolitics.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on April 4. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
EUR/USD 1H
It is perfectly clear on the hourly timeframe that there is no trend now, the euro rose sharply last week, but on Thursday the reverse movement began. And both of these movements do not fit into either an upward trend or a downward one. Moreover, at the moment the pair is in between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines, so "the future is not determined." A new round of upward movement may begin from the Senkou Span B line, and if it is overcome, the euro will continue to fall. We allocate the following levels for trading on Monday – 1.0901, 1.0945, 1.1036, 1.1137, 1.1185, 1.1234, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1042) and Kijun-sen (1.1065) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events are scheduled for April 4 in the European Union and the United States, so volatility may remain low. We did not receive news on the topic of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict or on the topic of negotiations between Kiev and Moscow during the weekend. Perhaps there will be news today, but it is certainly impossible to predict when it will appear.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
