Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also made an attempt to continue the fall on Wednesday, but in the afternoon it still started a correction. The pound's decline in recent weeks is much weaker than the euro. In general, the pair has been spending the last few days practically in lateral movement with a minimal downward slope. As well as for the euro/dollar pair, there is currently no trend line or channel. Even the movement itself is missing, since the pair is now neither in a trend nor in a sideways trend. Yesterday, the British pound made a rather impressive fall. We assumed that it had nothing to do with the ISM business activity index in the US, which was published exactly at the time when the fall began. As it turned out a little later, the market reacted to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Lael Brainard, who said that the Fed was going to do everything possible to return inflation to the target level. And "everything possible" is a multiple increase in the key rate and a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. These two instruments are very powerful, so the dollar is feeling strong market support. Plus, the dollar remains a "reserve" currency, for which demand is always growing in a difficult geopolitical situation in the world.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The movement looks very weak on the 5-minute timeframe. By and large, the pair was trading sideways all day and showed growth only for a couple of hours in the middle of the European session. A report on business activity in the construction sector was published today in the UK, which turned out to be as neutral as possible and did not affect the course of trading. A little later, the US will publish the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed. It might be interesting, but by then the new traders should have left the market. Today, only one buy signal was formed during the day. The pair rebounded from the 1.3042-1.3059 area at the beginning of the European session, after which it was able to go up 38 points. However, it failed to reach the target level of 1.3126, but did not return back to the level of 1.3059 either. Therefore, novice traders had to open one long position today, which should have been closed manually in the late afternoon. Profit on it amounted to 10-20 points. The level of 1.3059 was recognized as irrelevant by the end of the day and the level of 1.3049 was formed instead. The pair's volatility today was 62 points, which is very low for the pound.
How to trade on Thursday:
The pair still does not form a new trend on the 30-minute TF. The most interesting thing is that the current movement cannot be called "flat" either. Thus, it is extremely difficult to predict the further movement of the pair now. The pound may well continue to fall against the dollar based on all the same factors: geopolitics, the strength of the US economy and the status of the dollar's reserve currency. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.3000, 1.3042-1.3049, 1.3126, 1.3156, 1.3210. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled for tomorrow in the UK. We only have applications for unemployment benefits in the US, which, given the minimum unemployment rate in the US, are unlikely to be of interest to the market. You can pay attention only to geopolitical news, but it is impossible to predict their release and nature in advance.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
